may never again see the boom they rode to riches during the
late 1990s technology-Internet bubble.
The move to shift IT-related work from the United States,
Western Europe, Australia and other developed countries to
vendors in emerging markets is an irreversible mega-trend,
and the workforce changes that accompany the movement are
not fleeting or temporal, warns Gartner Inc.
According to the research firm:
||By year-end 2004, one out of every 10 jobs within
U.S.-based IT vendors and service providers will move
to emerging markets, as will one out of every 20 IT
jobs within user enterprises (0.8 probability).
||Although many CIOs and business leaders claim that
offshore outsourcing permits them to reassign people
to higher-value work, Gartner has seen few instances
of that. In general, the offshore movement of IT-related
||Through 2005, fewer than 40 percent of people whose
jobs are moved to emerging markets will be redeployed
by their current employers (0.8 probability).
Without an investment boom, "white knight" industries,
new IT-led innovation or new ways of competing globally,
the scenario for the technical workforce in developed nations
looks bleak, Gartner concludes.
For example, Gartner says if it applies the assumptions
above to the IT Association of America's 2003 count of
IT practitioners in the US, preliminary analysis indicates
that another 500,000 IT jobs realistically may disappear
from the US by year-end 2004.